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Friday 27 April 2018

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Denmark is on a clear first place in the EU when it comes to getting unemployed quickly back to work. This is due to great flexibility and short notice warnings, believes labor market researcher.


Four out of ten Danes who were unemployed in the second quarter of 2017 were in work again the following quarter.

It shows new figures from Statistics Denmark, which 3F has counted on.

With 40 percent fast back in jobs, Denmark is at the top of all EU countries for which there are numbers. Most other EU countries are between 10 and 30 percent.

The figures are not behind labor market researcher and Professor Emeritus at Aalborg University, Per Kongshøj Madsen. The Labor Movement's Business Council, where Per Kongshøj Madsen is chairman, has previously shown that Denmark has the most flexible labor market in the EU and is number six in the world.

- The figures reflect that we have high mobility in and out of the labor market. The special thing in Denmark is that companies have low barriers to hiring and firing people, while having an active labor market policy, he says.

Per Kongshøj Madsen believes that especially the relatively short notice warnings in Denmark are crucial:

- Within the construction, for example, the notice of termination is only a few days. In other countries, the trap is harder when the employer hires people, he explains.

Savings in the model


In 3F, Chief Economist Frederik I. Pedersen agrees.

"We have a very dynamic labor market, where people can easily get rid of businesses if businesses are missing orders. Conversely, they dare to hire people when they get orders again, he says.

But at the same time, Frederik I. Pedersen believes that Denmark's leadership can be threatened.

- Because it is sown well and thoroughly in our Danish model. There has been a shorter unemployment benefit period and other impairments in the unemployment benefit system. The erosion of unemployment benefits will continue in the coming years, and it can threaten flexibility, he says.

"An increased imbalance between security and flexibility can put the model under pressure, for example, requiring longer notice warnings or fires, and it will provide a less dynamic labor market," says 3F's chief economist.

Not enough education


Per Kongshøj Madsen does not think the most important thing is whether you can receive unemployment benefits in two, four or six years.

"The crucial thing is to get a new job quickly, and this is done through active employment efforts with conversations, job training and education. I can be worried if the active effort is good enough, he says.

The figures in the graph show how many of them were affected by unemployment in Q2 2017, who were in work again in the third quarter of 2017.

Saturday 14 April 2018

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Friday 13 April 2018

A report estimates that a record economic growth is necessary to revalue without triggering the spending - jobs 2018

Addressing one of the demands of the growing mobilization of pensioners and future retirees in the Spanish streets requires with the current pension system a great effort as a country and break records of growth of the economy.
According to a confidential estimate of the general Directorate of Social Security of the Ministry of Employment to which EL MUNDO has had access, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Spain should grow by 4.2% on an annual average until 2050 in order to raise pensions as inflation without excessive triggering of system spending. Hence the need to reform the system.
The Spanish economy is currently growing at a rate of 3%, which would not be enough to prevent pensioners from losing purchasing power without further decontrolling the system's spending. The calculation assumes that maintaining the current nominal growth of 3% and aiming at the same time to raise pensions by around 1.8%, which is the average inflation forecast by the European Central Bank, would raise pension spending by 52%. It would go from the current 11.7% with respect to GDP, to 17.84%.
This would require an increase of more than 70,000 million euros per year in revenue through increased taxes or social contributions from the next decade. For the cost of the system to be similar to the current one (see attached graph), the economy should grow at the aforementioned nominal rate of 4.2% -2.4% real considering inflation-, unless reform measures are taken. contain the expense.
Although it has not transpired so far, the calculation to which this newspaper has had access was delivered months ago by the General Director of Social Security Management, Miguel Ángel García, to the Toledo Pact Commission that is working on that scenario, between others, according to parliamentary sources. Official sources of the Ministry of Employment point out that the Department's top officials do not contribute to this commission as a government , but as experts and trying to offer answers to the scenarios for which the deputies ask. One of the requests is, precisely, to evaluate the cost of revaluing pensions according to inflation.
In the case of the aforementioned document, the general director of the Ministry presented a simulation of the evolution of expenditure with respect to GDP from now until the year 2050 and taking into account that the number of pensioners will be 50% higher in that year than the 9.5 million current. Also estimating that the so-called substitution effect, -difference between new pensions and those that cause a fall in the system- remains constant at the current level.
Without going into figures, the Minister of Employment, Fátima Báñez , has made several public statements assuring that the system is "sustainable and viable", but that the most effective formula for this is "growth and job creation" .
Experts believe that one of the measures already taken, the so-called Pension Revaluation Index (IRP) introduced in the 2013 reform is the most powerful savings to try to correct the imbalance of Social Security . According to this modification, in a deficit situation like the current one and like the one foreseen for the future, pensions will only be able to increase by 0.25%. "Savings in 2018 alone can be 1,800 million, applying 0.25% instead of the CPI of 1.67% in November of last year, which led to more than 11,000 million savings in 2022. In 2027, Saving would reach up to 1.7 points of GDP, "says Eduardo Bandrés, director of Public Economics and Welfare at Funcas.
In return, it threatens to unleash a loss of purchasing power of up to 20 points for pensioners in the next 10 years , according to Bandrés. In 2017, pensions rose by 0.25% and average inflation was 2%. Only until 2022 this expert foresees an impoverishment of nine points.

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Tuesday 3 April 2018

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